{"backward":{"one_in":23.12303241335386,"probability":0.04324692290023719,"pv_failure_usd":0.0,"pv_success_usd":34344196222382.656},"forward":{"fair_market_cap_usd":3434419622238.2656,"fair_price_usd":170775.94970025946,"multiple_of_today":2.3123032413353863},"inputs":{"belief_pct":10.0,"discount_rate_pct":10.0,"failure_value_t":0.0,"horizon_years":10.0,"market_cap_usd":1485280806100.0,"pool_total_t":890.8,"share_pct":10.0,"success_t":89.08},"market":{"block_height":975433,"btc_price":73855.0,"circulating_supply":20110675.0,"difficulty":148364561003867.4,"fetched_at":"2026-11-11T12:30:44+00:00","letter_as_of":"2026-10-06","live":true,"market_cap_usd":1485280806100.0,"network_hashrate_hs":9.631484335120685e+20,"price_updated_at":"2026-11-11T12:28:53.000Z","sources":{"difficulty":"mempool.space","price":"coingecko"},"stale":false},"scenarios":{"discount_rate_pct":10.0,"full_supply":21000000.0,"market_cap_usd":1485280806100.0,"mode":"live","pool_t":300.0,"purchase_price":73855.0,"rows":[{"break_even_probability":2.159574644865353,"cagr":0.04496434083214784,"color":"#666666","key":"bear","label":"Bear","multiple":1.934292097449636,"note":"Limited adoption","price_per_coin":142857.14285714287,"share_pct":1.0,"value_t":3.0,"value_usd":3000000000000.0,"years":15},{"break_even_probability":0.7198582149551177,"cagr":0.12437078894335118,"color":"#8F7358","key":"slow","label":"Slow adoption","multiple":5.802876292348908,"note":"A smaller share, slowly","price_per_coin":428571.4285714286,"share_pct":3.0,"value_t":9.0,"value_usd":9000000000000.0,"years":15},{"break_even_probability":0.13409259457347997,"cagr":0.3447829857391318,"color":"#9B4F00","key":"reference","label":"Reference","multiple":19.34292097449636,"note":"The original scenario","price_per_coin":1428571.4285714286,"share_pct":10.0,"value_t":30.0,"value_usd":30000000000000.0,"years":10},{"break_even_probability":0.10074575099435006,"cagr":0.5268236041191032,"color":"#E28A16","key":"faster","label":"Faster","multiple":19.34292097449636,"note":"Same share, sooner","price_per_coin":1428571.4285714286,"share_pct":10.0,"value_t":30.0,"value_usd":30000000000000.0,"years":7},{"break_even_probability":0.028784500284100015,"cagr":0.826050869081147,"color":"#BD4B13","key":"larger_faster","label":"Larger + faster","multiple":67.70022341073725,"note":"More adoption, sooner","price_per_coin":5000000.0,"share_pct":35.0,"value_t":105.0,"value_usd":105000000000000.0,"years":7}],"share_now_pct":0.49509360203333336,"snapshot":null},"table":{"failure_value_t":0.0,"rates_pct":[5.0,8.0,10.0,12.0,15.0],"rows":[{"cells":[{"one_in":11.986611743425003,"probability":0.08342641118317096,"rate_pct":5.0},{"one_in":9.043819255785534,"probability":0.11057275380202645,"rate_pct":8.0},{"one_in":7.527704759623508,"probability":0.13284261696390098,"rate_pct":10.0},{"one_in":6.286504089181323,"probability":0.15907092174185283,"rate_pct":12.0},{"one_in":4.82626345677794,"probability":0.20719962947642517,"rate_pct":15.0}],"key":"gold","label":"Parity with gold","share_pct":3.2555006735518637,"value_t":29.0},{"cells":[{"one_in":18.40978231214309,"probability":0.05431894755976555,"rate_pct":5.0},{"one_in":13.890058953540956,"probability":0.0719939348957963,"rate_pct":8.0},{"one_in":11.56151620667693,"probability":0.08649384580047438,"rate_pct":10.0},{"one_in":9.655203176970211,"probability":0.10357109857462353,"rate_pct":12.0},{"one_in":7.412474978099636,"probability":0.13490770666403973,"rate_pct":15.0}],"key":"share_5","label":"5% of the visible pool","share_pct":5.0,"value_t":44.54},{"cells":[{"one_in":36.81956462428618,"probability":0.027159473779882776,"rate_pct":5.0},{"one_in":27.780117907081912,"probability":0.03599696744789815,"rate_pct":8.0},{"one_in":23.12303241335386,"probability":0.04324692290023719,"rate_pct":10.0},{"one_in":19.310406353940422,"probability":0.051785549287311765,"rate_pct":12.0},{"one_in":14.824949956199273,"probability":0.06745385333201986,"rate_pct":15.0}],"key":"share_10","label":"10% of the visible pool","share_pct":10.0,"value_t":89.08},{"cells":[{"one_in":92.04891156071545,"probability":0.01086378951195311,"rate_pct":5.0},{"one_in":69.45029476770478,"probability":0.01439878697915926,"rate_pct":8.0},{"one_in":57.807581033384665,"probability":0.017298769160094873,"rate_pct":10.0},{"one_in":48.276015884851056,"probability":0.020714219714924705,"rate_pct":12.0},{"one_in":37.06237489049818,"probability":0.02698154133280795,"rate_pct":15.0}],"key":"share_25","label":"25% of the visible pool","share_pct":25.0,"value_t":222.7}],"years":10.0},"ticket":{"difficulty":148364561003867.4,"expected_seconds_per_block":3186104686.9850373,"expected_years_per_block":100.96156510587109,"hashes_per_block":6.372209373970074e+23,"implied_network_hashrate_hs":1.0620348956616791e+21,"machine_block_probability_per_second":3.1386288218491807e-10,"machine_th_s":200.0,"one_hash_probability":1.5693144109245904e-24,"p_block_within_decade":0.09430039788040145,"p_block_within_year":0.009855868712149718}}