Pool Deep Dive
Individual Pool Luck & P&L Analysis
Select a Pool to Begin
Choose a mining pool from the dropdown above to view detailed luck and P&L analysis
Luck = (Actual Blocks / Expected Blocks) × 100%
• 100% = Pool found exactly expected blocks
• >100% = "Lucky" - found more than expected
• <100% = "Unlucky" - found fewer than expected
Expected blocks are based on pool's hashrate share. Over time, luck converges to 100% (Law of Large Numbers).
P&L = Actual Revenue − Expected Revenue
Revenue Calculation:
Revenue = Blocks × (Subsidy + Avg Fees)
• Positive P&L = Lucky, earned more than expected
• Negative P&L = Unlucky, earned less
• Cumulative P&L trends toward zero over time
| Period | Actual Blocks | Expected Blocks | Luck % | Revenue (BTC) | Expected (BTC) | P&L (BTC) | P&L (USD) |
|---|
Pools exclude outliers (top/bottom X%) from fee average, then pay ALL blocks at this smoothed rate.
Example (5% trim):
• Sort block fees, remove top/bottom 5%
• Calculate average of remaining 90%
• Pay every block at this trimmed rate
Pool P&L:
= Actual Fees − (Blocks × Trimmed Avg Fee)
| Trim Level | Fee Range Used | Avg Fee (Full) | Avg Fee (Trimmed) | Difference | Variance Reduction | Pool P&L (BTC) | Pool P&L (USD) |
|---|
Select a pool above to view daily payouts and fee exclusion analysis
Pool pays miners expected value daily, regardless of blocks found.
Key Metrics:
• VaR = Maximum expected loss at confidence level
• CVaR = Average loss beyond VaR (tail risk)
• Max Drawdown = Largest peak-to-trough decline
Capital Requirement:
Recommended reserves = VaR(99%) × 30 days
| Methodology | Capital (BTC) | Capital (USD) | Description |
|---|
| Scenario | Value | Exposure (BTC) | Exposure (USD) |
|---|
Based on historical data, this pool should maintain capital reserves to ensure operational solvency during periods of bad luck. The recommended capital covers the worst expected scenarios at 99% confidence over a 30-day horizon.
Select a pool above to view FPPS risk analysis
Data Sources: Block data from Bitcoin blockchain via local node • Pool identification via coinbase transaction analysis • BTC price from CoinGecko API